Thermoforming Report

Lessons from March Madness: Planning for the Unpredictable in Manufacturing

by Keith Brown, President & Owner, Siena Group

Success in manufacturing isn’t about having the perfect plan – it’s about flexibility, speed, and preparation for the unexpected. In this article, we draw parallels from March Madness to show how leaders can better navigate uncertainty in both operations and hiring.

Unless you are totally oblivious, you know it is March Madness. Buzzer beaters, bracket busters… and probably a blown-up bracket by now (mine included).

Every year, millions of brackets get filled out – office pools, online contests, you name it. And every year, they fall apart fast. This season, only 0.005% of brackets were still perfect after the first round. The odds of picking a perfect bracket? 1 in 9.2 quintillion. That’s a lot of zeros!

So here’s the obvious question – what are the odds your plan is perfect?

Whether you’re in planning, supply chain, or running a plant, you already know the answer. And let’s bring it even closer to home – what are the odds your hiring plan plays out exactly the way you thought it would?

None of us have a crystal ball. But, somehow, we’re all still expected to plan like we do. And that’s exactly where the lessons start.

Having a solid plan for your manufacturing plant is critical. No question. But even with strong historical data, things change – and that’s in a make-to-stock environment. Running custom or short-run work? You already know – chaos can hit fast, and plans go out the window.

Overconfidence in any plan is where things start to break down. Assumptions creep in. And eventually, those assumptions fail.

When the plan shifts at the last minute – which it will – the ripple effects aren’t small. Supply chain takes a hit. Purchasing scrambles. The people on the floor churn through another unplanned grade change. Time is lost. Costs go up. Quality risks increase… and yes, even safety incidents rise.

Hiring isn’t any different.

You’ve done the work – mapping out your needs for the year, or even just the next quarter – and then reality shows up. A key leader leaves. A new chunk of business lands. Suddenly, you’re trying to figure out how to staff up… fast.

The scenarios are endless. The impact is real.

Plans will change. The question is simple: how ready are you when they do?

The good news? There are ways to manage both the expected and the unexpected a whole lot better.

Unfortunately, the only level of flexibility you have in filling out your bracket… is filling out several of them.  But, that contingency plan just doesn’t exist in manufacturing. 

Building backup manufacturing plans is a key piece of managing both the expected and unexpected.  And I’ll leave the supply chain side of that to the experts!

As a professional in the business of search, however, there are very real ways to manage and mitigate these challenges. Invest the time to be prepared!

It’s rare for organizations to get ahead of the hiring curve – to anticipate a change and hire before it happens. Most of the time, there’s a gap. And that gap puts pressure on the rest of the team to pick up the slack.

Where things really slow down is when hiring happens in series. One or two candidates get interviewed, one or two move forward… and everything takes time to schedule – especially onsite/in-person interviews. Then what happens if candidate one doesn’t align? Or candidate two opts out?

Now you’re starting over.

My recommendation? Work in parallel as much as possible. If there is potential alignment, don’t get hung up on whether it’s an ‘official interview’ – just get a 30 to 45-minute conversation on the calendar. Momentum is everything in a search – and once you lose it, it’s hard to get back.

If you find the right person, move. But make sure you let others in process know.

It sounds intuitive, but it’s not common. Without getting into all the reasons why, very few do what every professional recruiter (internal and external) knows: ABRAlways Be Recruiting. 

Slow hiring processes lose good people. It’s that simple!

I’ve seen it play out more times than I can count. A company has an urgent need. The right candidate shows up – checks the boxes, strong interview, clear fit. And then… things slow down. Schedules get pushed. Decisions get delayed. And before you know it, that candidate has accepted another offer.

It happens the other way, too. A great candidate moves through the process, performs well at every step, even nails the onsite. The team likes them. But instead of moving forward, the search stays open… just to “see who else is out there.”

Two weeks later, you’re still looking – and the candidate is gone.

Good candidates don’t sit around and wait. They can’t.

This isn’t about bad intent. It’s just how busy organizations operate. But from the candidate’s perspective? It sends a clear message.

Momentum matters. Energy matters. And candidates can feel when the hiring process is dragging.

The fix isn’t complicated: get alignment and commitment from the decision-makers upfront… and then execute.

Assumptions will derail a search every time. Unless you fully understand the role, in partnership with the hiring manager, you won’t hit the bullseye – you may not even be anywhere near the target!  Job descriptions help, but they rarely capture what really matters. 

At the same time, flexibility is critical. Yes – hold firm to the must-haves. But, holding out for a 100% fit comes with a cost: time. And time matters.

An 80-90% fit who is local and ready to go, for example, can often be the smarter decision – and worth the investment. Relocation alone can be one of the biggest hurdles in getting someone across the finish line.

Fast access to talent is tough – especially when you’re looking for something specific.

Strong HR teams usually have a good pulse on their local markets. But beyond that, visibility drops off quickly. And when speed matters, that gap becomes a real challenge.

That’s where partnerships come in. Leveraging experts makes sense. Developing long-term relationships with external recruiters can pay dividends when needing to find the right people – and find them fast.

The right recruiting partner isn’t just about filling a role – it’s about having someone who understands your business, your culture, and how you operate. That context matters. And over time, it pays off when you need to move with confidence.

At The Siena Group, that’s exactly where we focus – supporting manufacturing organizations, particularly in the thermoforming space, where speed, specialization, and access to the right talent can make all the difference.

Unfortunately, sometimes a “bracket buster” happens in hiring – the wrong person gets hired.  It’s frustrating. It’s disappointing. And somewhere along the way, something got missed.

Trust me, as a born and bred (and alum) University of Florida Gator, watching the team lose on Sunday night was tough!  But, that’s the reality – whether it’s a tournament or your hiring plan, things don’t always go the way you expect.

The goal isn’t perfection – it’s being ready to adjust when things inevitably change. You figure out what went wrong. You adjust. And you’re better for it the next time.

Because just like your March Madness bracket… it’s not about being perfect. It’s about how you respond when it breaks.

At Siena Group, we are your Thermoforming Talent Partner! We’re here to help in any and every way possible! With more than 30 years of experience in manufacturing, hiring & recruiting talent, we bring a greater understanding of the companies we partner with and the candidates we pursue. Let’s Strengthen Your Search!

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